The Gunslinger said, "My advice to you is to get yourself a Holy Book, then learn how to pray."
The Preacherman said, "My advice to you is to get yourself a gun, then learn how to shoot."
The Politician said, "My advice to you is to get yourself free of superstitions and weapons, then learn how to obey."

BLOG TRIGGER WARNING: "OMG! OMG! Guns have triggers!" Well, yeah, but so do NORK NUKES. It's best that you waddle on over to your safe space and assume the kissin' position.

REQUISITE BLOG DISCLAIMER: Entries at this blog are akin to good old-fashioned campfire chats; I offer no opinion on what you should or should not purchase, or what you should be using or doing. What does or does not work for me could be many country-miles away from your tastes and your needs. Any products, places, and / or whatnots that I review for this blog are purchased at retail price by me. I do not accept payment, gifts, discounts, freebies, products on loan, demon alcohol, drugs, probation, parole, Presidential Pardons, or any flavor of sexual favor for doing any review.

EU TRACKING COOKIE NOTICE: Google bakes those scrumptious cookies and everything Google cooks up means something related is up for sale. We appreciate our many visitors from inside and outside of the USA and feel obligated to mention that YOUR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS MAY KNOW THAT YOU WERE HERE and they may not approve of you perusing the blog entries regarding GUNS ... KNIVES ... SELF-DEFENSE ... CORRUPT POLITICIANS ... SELF-SERVING ROGUE GOVERNMENT AGENCIES ... GOVERNMENT SPYING ON CITIZENS ... Human Rights ... Freedom of Speech ... Life ... Liberty ... Pursuit of Happiness ... War isn't Peace ... Slavery isn't Freedom ... Ignorance is Weakness ... Daring to Question Everything and Everyone ... all that crazy subversive kind of stuff that worries the dictatorial elite.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Dumb Luck Investing Update

This afternoon I closed out some bond funds and moved more cash into the equities; I love days when all major market indicators dive. Today the Dow, S&P-500, and NASDAQ all took a 3% trimming; I believe all markets are once again back into true bear-market territory, 20% or more off their respective market highs. Dumb luck still has me down only 2% from my portfolio highs, but my benchmarks say I am 7% below portfolio minimum goals; it was time for another adjustment.

Restating for the record, the total value of my portfolio is very modest. It is large enough to provide me with retirement security should my pension not keep up with inflation. It is small enough for me to avoid mental irregularity if my luck goes polar-south. It keeps me busy and it is fun.

Is this “Dumb Luck Investor” calling a bottom to the stock markets? Nah, I don’t look for bottoms or tops, I just make random purchases and sales with the market trends. My instincts tell me not to be surprised if the markets eventually capitulate with another 5% - 10% to the downside. I’m a contrarian; when we all believe that investors are doomed, the markets will then make fools of us all. Are the markets making a statement against Obama or McCain? Pundits have tossed that card in both directions, I believe the markets don’t really care who wins. I do believe that the markets don’t like doubt; markets simply don’t like not knowing who will win. Once one or the other candidate is the obvious winner, then doubt is out of the process and the markets can move on to other distractions. The markets do seem to enjoy a gridlocked government when the president is from one party and the other party controls congress, but that lucky event easily runs aground with the inept economic piloting of our bipolar Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Currently I am still comfortably conservative, 55% cash, 45% equities. Will I ever go 100% equities? At this point in my life in this crazy world, I doubt it, but if I see the market go low enough to where people are jumping from tall buildings I may give it a go.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is advice; we all are truly on our own.

James A. Zachary Jr.

No comments: