The sensitivity warning that you saw before entering this blog site is a a Google Blogger option. Since we are in the era of everybody being offended by everything, I decided it was prudent to flip the switch that activated that optional canned warning.

Blogging to you from the Northeastern Badlands of Lake County, Illinois; DEEP DEEP DEEP DEEP inside the heartland of the Socialist Banana Republic formerly known as the USA, WELCOME TO THE NEXT CHAPTER! WARNING! ALL FORMS OF SOCIAL MEDIA ARE ADDICTIVE; EXCESSIVE USE MAY LEAD TO MENTAL HEALTH DISORDERS, REDUCED JOB PRODUCTIVITY, INSOMNIA, SOCIAL ALIENATION, GENITAL ULCERS, BLINDNESS, POLITICAL EROTICISM, AND / OR DEVIANT FUNAMBULISM. NOTICE: NO GUNS OR AMMUNITION ARE FOR SALE VIA THIS BLOG. (No, I will not trade my Colt Python for some lubricious adventures with your trophy wife and a future first-round draft pick.) CAVEAT: This blog is not suitable for viewing while at work, while inside a public library, while inside any public or private school, or while inside any public or private restroom. Do not view this blog while driving a motor vehicle or while piloting an aircraft. Viewing this blog may be illegal inside the EU, NYC, Chicago, Seattle, and other parts of the Third World. THIS BLOG CONTAINS (albeit often very childish) ADULT-CONTENT. DISCLAIMER: This blog is a hobby, it is not a livelihood. Even though much of what I blog about relates to firearms collecting and recreational shooting, I am not an expert (by any measure) on any facet of guns, shooting, hunting, or personal defense. Entries at this blog are akin to good old-fashioned campfire chats or post hunt bourbon-fueled barroom-bluster; I offer no opinion on what you should or should not purchase, or what you should be using or doing. What does or does not work for me could be rugged-country-miles away from your tastes and your needs. All products, places, and miscellany that I review for this blog are purchased / rented / leased at retail price by me. I do not accept payment, gifts, discounts, freebies, products on loan, distilled spirits, recreational pharmaceuticals, plea-bargains, probation, parole, Papal Blessings, Presidential Pardons, or sexual favors for doing any review or blog post. TRACKING COOKIES: Google et al stick tracking cookies on everybody. If you are online, you are being spied on via one method or another, for one reason or another; 'nuff said. You may be able to minimize your online DNA residue by using Tor and Duck Duck Go. Vive la liberté! Vive all y'all! Ante omnia armari. To each of you, thanks for stopping by!

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Dumb Luck Investing Update

This afternoon I closed out some bond funds and moved more cash into the equities; I love days when all major market indicators dive. Today the Dow, S&P-500, and NASDAQ all took a 3% trimming; I believe all markets are once again back into true bear-market territory, 20% or more off their respective market highs. Dumb luck still has me down only 2% from my portfolio highs, but my benchmarks say I am 7% below portfolio minimum goals; it was time for another adjustment.

Restating for the record, the total value of my portfolio is very modest. It is large enough to provide me with retirement security should my pension not keep up with inflation. It is small enough for me to avoid mental irregularity if my luck goes polar-south. It keeps me busy and it is fun.

Is this “Dumb Luck Investor” calling a bottom to the stock markets? Nah, I don’t look for bottoms or tops, I just make random purchases and sales with the market trends. My instincts tell me not to be surprised if the markets eventually capitulate with another 5% - 10% to the downside. I’m a contrarian; when we all believe that investors are doomed, the markets will then make fools of us all. Are the markets making a statement against Obama or McCain? Pundits have tossed that card in both directions, I believe the markets don’t really care who wins. I do believe that the markets don’t like doubt; markets simply don’t like not knowing who will win. Once one or the other candidate is the obvious winner, then doubt is out of the process and the markets can move on to other distractions. The markets do seem to enjoy a gridlocked government when the president is from one party and the other party controls congress, but that lucky event easily runs aground with the inept economic piloting of our bipolar Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Currently I am still comfortably conservative, 55% cash, 45% equities. Will I ever go 100% equities? At this point in my life in this crazy world, I doubt it, but if I see the market go low enough to where people are jumping from tall buildings I may give it a go.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is advice; we all are truly on our own.

James A. Zachary Jr.

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