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Friday, December 3, 2010

Hard Times Investing Update 12/3/2010


Goodness sakes alive, I haven’t blabbed about my portfolio since 12/26/2009. Same news, different day; the portfolio (which is of modest value) is at another all time high, but not because I am prescient; it is only because I am still riding a righteously beautiful wave of dumb luck. The allocation is 50% each for cash and equities (the bulk of my investment cash is in a liquid fixed-rate vehicle loaded with high quality bonds). I won’t be getting rich but the odds are favorable for me avoiding the poorhouse for a while longer. Based on a model of my own design, the S&P-500 at around 1200 was the comfort zone for this year so I saw no reason to do much in the way of portfolio adjustments. For next year, (2011) my comfort zone for the S&P-500 is around the 1285 level. Market moves substantially higher than 1285 will have me taking some money from equities; market moves substantially below 1285 will call for me to move some more money into equities.

When do I believe the S&P-500 will return to the pre-crash levels of the upper 1500s? My non-scientific, computerized, wild ass guess, investment projection model says somewhere around the 1587 level will be my S&P-500 comfort zone for the year 2014. However, the ever-ominous dark cloud of fate warns that the markets don’t give a damn about what my model says. OBLIGATORY DISCLAIMER: Nothing in this blog entry is financial advice, or advice on investing.

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