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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Dumb Luck Investing Update



Welcome to the wonderful world of scrambled nest eggs.

At a quick glance, followed by some quick barroom napkin calculations, Monday’s stock market selloff put the major markets down from their bull-market closing highs as follows:

DOW down roughly 27%
S&P down roughly 29%
NASD down roughly 30%

My modest little portfolio is now even more modest than before, down 8.5% from its bull market high. With the equities portion losing value, my cash position now sits at 60%. Adhering to my personal investment rules, October is my next window for a portfolio change. For now, my inclination is to move another preset monthly allowable amount from cash into equities. My rules do not obligate me to make a change each month; I can choose not to do anything. If I skip a month, my rules do not allow me to make two changes the following month; it is strictly one change allowed per month.

One would think we would see some market support in this -30% area of losses. If all of the cards were face up on the table then we could all start feeling optimistic, but there may be more surprises. The markets going another 10% to the downside would not surprise me, but there is absolutely know way of knowing.

Hang in there; I am sure that Paulson, Bernanke, Bush, and Congress have a bailout plan ready to cover all of our investment losses.

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